Jobs Report Raises Recovery Question

Bart van Ark — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 14:34:51 +0000

While today’s jobs report shows gains, it’s a significant setback following four consecutive months of accelerating growth. The private sector added only 41,000 jobs, as May’s employment increase was driven by temporary Census hiring. Continued slower growth would mean we’ve passed an unprecedentedly early peak in the rate of employment growth following a recession, which wouldn’t be good news for the recovery’s strength. Manufacturing jobs gains are at best tepid, and a lack of significant growth in construction, financial services, and information show several sectors aren’t yet on the recovery path.

Recovery On Track But Hardships Ahead

Bart van Ark — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 18:35:29 +0000

The 3.2 percent rise in GDP (annualized) in the first quarter confirms that the U.S. economy continues to recover but the growth path ahead will remain bumpy. While growth is about half of the robust 5.6 percent pace in the last quarter of 2009, the underlying dynamic is actually healthier and better balanced: More of the rise in GDP came from domestic demand and less from an inventory correction. Still, the strength and durability of this recovery remain in question, as the economy sails into strong headwinds over the next few quarters.

This statement is from Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board on the GDP figure issued today.

The boost from the fiscal stimulus is fading. Households remain heavily in debt and residential investment showed a large downturn. And there are daunting fiscal problems in the public sector. Unless income and job growth pick up sharply, consumer spending will cool.

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Jobs Report Raises Recovery Question

Recovery On Track But Hardships Ahead